CEO Overconfidence and Dividend Policy: Evidence from Tiger Cub Economies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i10/147746Keywords:
CEO Overconfidence
, Managerial Overconfidence, Dividend Policy, Behavioral Corporate Finance.JEL Classification Codes
, G3, G35, G350.Paper Submission Date
, August 23, 2018, Paper Sent Back for Revision, September 9, 2019, Paper Acceptance Date, September 15, 2019.Abstract
This study aimed to investigate the effect of CEO overconfidence and dividend policy in Tiger Cub Economies which are Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. This research also examined the determinants of dividend policy that includes lagged dividend payment, firm size, growth, profitability, free cash flow, leverage, and liquidity. A sample of 232 public listed firms was selected from Tiger Cub Economies for the data period ranging from 2012 to 2016. Using system generalized method of moment (GMM) estimation, a negative relationship was found between dividend payment and CEO overconfidence, a finding that is consistent with the findings of past research. Moreover, the research finding was robust when a more stringent measure of CEO overconfidence was adopted. Other significant determinants of dividend payment were asset growth, firm leverage, earnings growth, and firm size. The findings indicated reduction in dividends associated with CEO overconfidence in firms with declining asset growth, lower firm leverage, higher earnings growth, and larger firm size.Downloads
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
References
Abreu, J. F., & Gulamhussen, M. A. (2013). Dividend payouts : Evidence from U.S. bank holding companies in the context of the financial crisis. Journal of Corporate Finance, 22(1), 54-65. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2013.04.001
Alicke, M. D., Klotz, M. L., Breitenbecher, D. L., Yurak, T. J., & Vredenburg, D. S. (1995). Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(5), 804-825. https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.68.5.804
Allen, D. E., & Rachim, V. S. (1996). Dividend policy and stock price volatility: Australian evidence. Applied Financial Economics, 6(2), 175-188. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/096031096334402
Amoako-Adu, B., Baulkaran, V., & Smith, B. F. (2014). Analysis of dividend policy of dual and single class U.S corporations. Journal of Economics and Business, 72, 1-29. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2013.10.002
Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
Arnott, R. D., & Asness, C. S. (2003). Surprise! Higher dividends = Higher earnings growth. Financial Analysts Journal, 59(1), 70-87. DOI : https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v59.n1.2504
Athari, S. A., Adaoglu, C., & Bektas, E. (2016). Investor protection and dividend policy: The case of Islamic and conventional banks. Emerging Markets Review, 27 (1), 100-117. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2016.04.001
Baker, H. K, & Powell, G. E. (2012). Dividend policy in Indonesia: Survey evidence from executives. Journal of Asia Business Studies, 6(1), 79-92. https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/15587891211191399
Banerjee, S., Dai, L., Humphery-Jenner, M., & Nanda, V. K. (2017, July). Governance, board inattention, and the appointment of overconfident CEOs. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2371435
Banerjee, S., Humphery-Jenner, M., & Nanda, V. K. (2015). Restraining overconfident CEOs through improved governance : Evidence from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. The Review of Financial Studies, 28(10), 2812-2858. https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv034
Benavides, J., Berggrun, L., & Perafan, H. (2016). Dividend payout policies: Evidence from Latin America. Finance Research Letters, 17(1), 197-210. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.03.012
Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
Boţoc, C., & Pirtea, M. (2014). Dividend payout-policy drivers: Evidence from emerging countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(s4), 95-112. https://dx.doi.org/10.2753/REE1540496X5004S407
Boulton, T. J., & Campbell, T. C. (2016). Managerial confidence and initial public offerings. Journal of Corporate Finance, 37(1), 375-392. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.01.015
Brown, R., & Sarma, N. (2007). CEO overconfidence, CEO dominance and corporate acquisitions. Journal ofEconomics and Business, 59(5), 358-379. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2007.04.002
Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turn over. Journal of Financial Econom cs, 101 (3), 695-712. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.03.004
Chasan, E. (2013, August 26). Last gasp for stock options. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from https://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2013/08/26/last-gasp-for-stock-options/
Cordeiro, L. (2009). Managerial overconfidence and dividend policy. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1343805
Deshmukh, S. (2003). Dividend initiations and asymmetric information: A hazard model. Financial Review, 38(3), 351-368. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1540-6288.00050
Deshmukh, S., Goel, A. M., & Howe, K. M. (2013). CEO overconfidence and dividend policy. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22(3), 440-463. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2013.02.003
Esqueda, O. A. (2016). Signaling, corporate governance, and the equilibrium dividend policy. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 59(1), 186-199. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2015.06.005
Fairchild, R., Guney, Y., & Thanatawee, Y. (2014). Corporate dividend policy in Thailand : Theory and evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis, 31 (1), 129-151. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.10.006
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2001). Disappearing dividends: Changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay? Journal of Financial Economics, 60(1), 3-43. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304405X(01)00038-1
Firth, M., Gao, J., Shen, J., & Zhang, Y. (2016). Institutional stock ownership and firms’ cash dividend policies: Evidence from China. Journal of Banking and Finance, 65(1), 91-107. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.01.009
Fleming, G., Heaney, R., & McCosker, R. (2005). Agency costs and ownership structure in Australia. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13(1), 29-52. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2004.04.001
Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2011). Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting.
Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1735-1777. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01686.x
Griffin, D., & Brenner, L. (2008). Perspectives on probability judgment calibration. In D. J. Koehler & N. Harvey (eds.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making (pp.177-199). Chichester, United Kingdom : Wiley-Blackwell.
Gugler, K., & Yurtoglu, B. B. (2003). Corporate governance and dividend pay-out policy in Germany. European Economic Review, 47(4), 731-758. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00291-X
Hilary, G., Hsu, C., Segal, B., & Wang, R. (2016). The bright side of managerial over-optimism. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 62(1), 46-64. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2016.04.001
Hirshleifer, D., Low, A., & Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators ? Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1457-1498. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01753.x
Hribar, P., & Yang, H. (2016). CEO overconfidence and management forecasting. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33(1), 204-227. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12144
Hu, A., & Kumar, P. (2004). Managerial entrenchment and payout policy. Journal of Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(04), 759-790. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022109000003203
Huang, R., Tan, K. J. K., & Faff, R. W. (2016). CEO overconfidence and corporate debt maturity. Journal of Corporate Finance, 36(1), 93-110. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.10.009
Humphery-Jenner, M., Lisic, L. L., Nanda, V., & Silveri, S. D. (2016). Executive overconfidence and compensation structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 119 (3), 533-588. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.022
Jabbouri, I. (2016). Determinants of corporate dividend policy in emerging markets: Evidence from MENA stock markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 37(1), 283-298. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.01.018
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323-329. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.99580
Jones, M. (2015, April 9). Which ASEAN country is the most competitive? World Economic Forum. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/04/which-asean-country-is-the-most-competitive/
Kahneman, D., & Riepe, M. W. (1998). Aspects of investor psychology. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(4), 52-65.
Kallapur, S. (1994). Dividend payout ratios as determinants of earnings response coefficients: A test of the free cash flow theory. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 17 (3), 359-375. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(94)90033-7
Kapoor, S., Anil, K., & Misra, A. (2010). Dividend policy determinants of Indian FMCG sector: A factorial analysis. Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, 6(9), 50-64.
Khang, K., & King, T. H. D. (2006). Does dividend policy relate to cross-sectional variation in information asymmetry? Evidence from returns to insider trades. Financial Management, 35(4), 71-94. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2006.tb00160.x
Kruger, J. (1999). Lake Wobegon be gone! The "below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(2), 221-232. https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.2.221
Larwood, L., & Whittaker, W. (1977). Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning. Journal of Applied Psychology, 62(2), 194-198. https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.62.2.194
Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings, and taxes. The American Economic Review, 46(2), 97-113. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.151.3712.867-a
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005a). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2661-2700. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005b). Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited. European Financial Management, 11(5), 649-659. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1354-7798.2005.00302.x
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1), 20-43. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.07.002
Malmendier, U., Tate, G., & Yan, J. (2011). Overconfidence and early life experiences: The impact of managerial traits on corporate financial policies. Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1687-1733. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13398-014-0173-7.2
Manneh, M. A., & Naser, K. (2015). Determinants of corporate dividends policy: Evidence from an emerging economy. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(7), 229-239. https://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v7n7p229
Mather, P., & Peirson, G. (2006). Financial covenants in the markets for public and private debt. Accounting and Finance, 46(2), 285-307. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2006.00168.x
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-serving bias in the attribution of causality: fact or fiction? Psychological Bulletin, 82(2), 213-225. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(82)90081-6
Nini, G., Smith, D. C., & Sufi, A. (2009). Creditor control rights and firm investment policy. Journal of Financial Economics, 92(3), 400-420. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.04.008
Nusrathunnisa, & Duraipandian, R. (2019). Does Lintner model explain dividend payments of the Indian banking sector? Indian Journal of Finance, 13(3), 7-25. https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i3/142265
Ping, Z., & Ruland, W. (2006). Dividend payout and future earnings growth. Financial Analysts Journal, 62(3), 58-69. https://dx.doi.org/10.2469/faj.v62.n3.4157
Poornima, B. G., Morudkar, V., & Reddy, Y. V. (2019). Impact of dividend announcements of banks on stock returns and the determinants of dividend policy. Indian Journal of Finance, 13 (5), 7-24. doi:10.17010//ijf/2019/v13i5/144182
Rizvi, S., & Khare, S. (2011). Determinants of dividend payout ratios-A study of the Indian banking sector. Indian Journal of Finance, 5 (2), 24-31. Retrieved from http://www.indianjournaloffinance.co.in/index.php/IJF/article/view/72529
Roll, R. (1986). The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers. The Journal of Business, 59(2), 197-216. https://dx.doi.org/10.1086/296325
Schrand, C. M., & Zechman, S. L. C. (2012). Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 53(1-2), 311-329. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2011.09.001
Shu, P. G., Yeh, Y. H., Chiang, T. L., & Hung, J. Y. (2013). Managerial overconfidence and share repurchases. International Review of Finance, 13(1), 39-65. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.14682443.2012.01162.x
Sudhahar, M. (2010). Determinants of dividend policy in selected Indian industries: An empirical analysis. Indian Journal of Finance, 4 (12), 29-39. Retrieved from http://www.indianjournaloffinance.co.in/index.php/IJF/article/view/72551
Theis, J., & Dutta, A. S. (2009). Explanatory factors of bank dividend policy: Revisited. Managerial Finance, 35(6), 501-508. https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/03074350910956963Venkataramanaiah
V., Latha, C. M., & Rao, K. S. (2018). Determinants of dividend policy in the Indian corporate sector : A study of companies listed on Nifty 50, NSE. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(1), 37-46. https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i1/120740
Wang, X., Manry, D., & Wandler, S. (2011). The impact of government ownership on dividend policy in China. Advances in Accounting, 27(2), 366-372. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2011.08.003